Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 8?
Winner: No
BTC at $67,531 needs +3.6% to exceed $70k by Mar 8 16:00 UK. Daily vol ~4% implies neutral prob ~18% (0.9SD upmove under lognormal, Phi^{-1}(0.82)~0.9). Market 6% prices in ~2.5% bear drift or skew, unjustified w/o catalysts/news. Low $106k vol = tail mispricing. +EV buy Yes.
⚠️ Full Grok analysis from 8 Mar 2026, 02:29. Original EV preserved.
Odds & volume refreshed just now.
Last refreshed odds: 13:38